Sweden’s KAJ (pictured) are among the favourites to win Eurovision 2025. (Getty)
Updated Eurovision Song Contest 2025 betting odds indicate that this year the legendary singing competition will see two specific countries duel it out for victory.
Eurovision 2025 is upon us, his time in Basel, Switzerland, following on from the historic victory from non-binary star Nemo and their song “The Code” in 2024.
As is per usual, the 2025 contest features a number of LGBTQ+ performers, including Adonxs representing Czechia, Red Sebastian for Belgium, Marko Bošnjak for Croatia, and Erika Vikman representing Finland. Could one of them be in line for the win?
As is also customary now at Eurovision, this year’s contest isn’t without controversy.
Malta’s queer-inspired entrant Miriana Conte has made headlines after the European Broadcasting Union told her she couldn’t use her song “Kant” – which featured the beat-drop lyric “Serving Kant” – as it sounded too similar to an English swear word. That’s despite the fact “Kant” in Maltese simply means “Singing”.
However, Conte has returned with a re-done version of the track simply called “Serving” – we’re assuming the Eurovision audience will fill in the rest. Could she be a contender for the top spot?
Estonia’s entrant, Tommy Cash, has also proved controversial, with Italians claiming his song “Espresso Macchiato” contains racist Italian tropes and stereotypes.
According to the betting public, this year’s Eurovision winner could be a history-maker, too. Here are the top entrants most likely to win Eurovision 2025, according to betting odds (Spoiler: it’s not great news for the UK and Remember Monday…)
Israel is entering the Eurovision Song Contest with 24-year-old singer Yuval Raphael, and her typically Eurovision, trilingual ballad “New Day Will Rise”. At the time of writing, odds makers believe she could potentially win the whole thing, with an apparent 3 per cent chance. It would be the country’s fourth Eurovision win.
After a barn-storming performance of “Ich Komme” in Eurovision’s second semi-final, fan favourite camp queen Erika Vikman has surged up the list of favourites, with a 4 per cent chance winning the whole competition.
While the squelchy eurodance banger’s title “Ich Komme” is in German, the rest of the song is in Finnish. Though when translated in full to English, the meaning behind it is more than a little not-safe-for-work – with the title translating to “I’m coming” in English. We’ll let you decide what Erika might be referring to.
Opening as a yearning, piano-led ballad, Claude’s “C’est La Vie” builds and erupts into a thumping dance-pop track that sounds like a classic Eurovision staple. The title directly translates to “That’s Life”, with the Congolese-born Dutch singer behind the song explaining that he hopes it encourages people to “focus on the brighter side” of the world.
“C’est La Vie” is currently third most likely to win Eurovision according to betting odds, with a 5 per cent chance. If Claude did win, it would take Netherlands to an impressive six wins in total. They were previously in fifth place, and Israel was in fourth: they’ve since swapped places.
Wherever it places, it will be a better result for Netherlands than last year: in 2024, the country’s representative Joost Klein was disqualified over an alleged “backstage incident” (an investigation has since found the singer didn’t intend to cause “serious fear” during the incident).
France’s act Louane currently has an 10 per cent winning chance according to betting odds; something she somehow managed to achieve before her song “Maman” was even released (It eventually premiered at the Six Nations Championship match in mid March). “Maman” is a quintessential Eurovision ballad, beginning with featherlight vocals over tender piano strokes, before building into an out-and-out empowerment anthem about familial relationships.
Louane is already a pretty big star in France – she was a semi-finalist on the 2013 season of France’s version of The Voice, has since sold three million albums, and is also an established actress – so that may have something to do with her being highly anticipated to do well.
Like the Netherlands, if France wins Eurovision 2025, it will be their sixth time. Not bad at all.
Austria is hoping to secure its third win with 23-year-old Austrian-Filipino countertenor JJ and his soaring popera song “Wasted Love”. They’ve got a fair chance. The better odds show that the song – which begins over dainty piano strokes, before shooting skyward on the opera chorus, and climaxing with explosive EDM – has a 21 per cent chance of winning as of 6 May 2025.
If JJ does take home coveted microphone trophy, it will be the first time Austria has won since drag icon Conchita Wurst bagged the win in 2014, coincidentally with her own swooping ballad, “Rise Like A Phoenix”.
Sweden is in the running for a historic eighth win at the Eurovision Song Contest 2025, according to betting odds. Comedy group KAJ, formed in 2009 and made up of Kevin Holmström, Axel Åhman and Jakob Norrgård, are entering with their synthy, accordion-led Epadunk banger “Bara Bada Bastu”, an ode to releasing all your bad energy with a trip to the sauna (the group are Finnish, and paying homage to Finnish sauna culture).
KAJ are currently way up front in the Eurovision 2025 betting odds, with a whopping 42 per cent chance of winning. If Sweden wins, the country will break its tie with Ireland, and become the country with the most Eurovision wins ever. Sweden last won in 2023, with returning pop icon Loreen and her song “Tattoo”.
So, it doesn’t look likely that an out queer artist will win Eurovision 2025, though it’s not entirely impossible: Finland’s Erika Vikman and Belgium’s Red Sebastian are currently sixth and eighth most likely to win respectively. Czechia’s Adonxs is 14th most likely to win, while Croatia’s Marko Bošnja is currently one spot away from being at the very bottom of the betting odds.
Sadly, this year’s entrant from the United Kingdom – country-pop trio Remember Monday and their bop “What The Hell Just Happened?” – has just a one per cent chance of winning. They’re at number 14 in the odds. There’s similarly bad luck for the gays’ favourite, Malta’s Mariana Conte, who is at number 111 in the odds with “Serving”. If the betting odds are correct, at least both acts would finish in the top half of the leader board.
The Eurovision semi-finals take place on Tuesday 13 May and Thursday 15 May, with the final airing on Saturday 17 May.
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