Thursday, May 22, 2025
Post Malone at the 2018 American Music Awards. The AMAs return May 26 and prediction markets like Kalshi let you bet on the winners
Fan-voted awards create unique opportunities for music fans to leverage their knowledge on prediction market platforms
The American Music Awards are returning for their 51st ceremony on Memorial Day (May 26). Last held in 2022, it’s back from a hiatus in Las Vegas and on CBS. This ceremony will feature performances from icons like Janet Jackson and Sir Rod Stewart. This year’s AMAs have traders betting on who will win on the top prediction platform, Kalshi.
United States-based music fans can bet on these awards legally via Kalshi. Trade on the AMAs at Kalshi now.
The American Music Awards, first launched in 1974, are produced by Dick Clark Productions. Unlike other music awards shows like the Grammys or the American Country Music Awards, the AMAs are decided by fan votes. You can visit the official AMA site and vote for your favorite artists and songs.
Since 1974, the American Music Awards have aired on ABC; however, ABC chose not to renew its contract in 2022. After a three-year hiatus and a new agreement with CBS, the American Music Awards are returning this year, airing live coast-to-coast at 8 p.m. ET on CBS, and streaming on Paramount+ in the U.S.
This year’s American Music Awards boasts a large collection of big names who will be performing and presenting. Janet Jackson will receive the Icon Award and perform. After not gracing the AMA stage for over 20 years, Sir Rod Stewart will be given a lifetime achievement award and perform one of his classics.
Jennifer Lopez will host the show and perform. Other performers include Benson Boone, Blake Shelton, Gloria Estefan, Gwen Stefani, Lainey Wilson, and Reneé Rapp.
In terms of presenters, there is a wide range of celebrities, including The Traitors’ Dylan Efron, model/actress Cara Delevigne, comedian Tiffany Haddish, and singer Shaboozey, to name a few.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market. This means U.S.-based individuals can legally bet on the outcome of future events.
But how do you actually bet on the AMAs? As of May 22, Kalshi has 37 markets for the 2025 American Music Awards. For example, for Kalshi’s favorite female pop artist market, Lady Gaga is the current front runner at 35%.
If you believe Gaga has a higher chance of winning, you can purchase a “Yes” share for 35 cents to increase the forecasted chance. On the other hand, if you think traders are overestimating her chances, you can buy a “No” share for 65 cents to decrease the predicted chance.
If you are correct, you will earn one dollar for every share you’ve bought. Buying 100 shares at 35 cents will make you $100 total with a $65 profit. With Kalshi markets, music fans can use their music and fanbase knowledge to bet on the AMAs.
A very important note is who is voting for these awards. Unlike the Grammys, where an Academy of selected individuals votes on nominees, the AMAs are chosen by public vote.
The current context can also affect a singer’s chances of winning. While Billie Eilish’s “Bird of a Feather” may have been popular months ago, now another artist could be a current favorite of the public.
It’s also important to note that comparing this year’s Grammy winners is not a one-to-one comparison, because the nominees are often different. For example, Benson Boone received only one nomination at the Grammys, but he scored five nominations at the 2025 AMAs.
The differences in nomination processes can also affect who will win the category. For example, there is a different time period of eligibility. For the AMAs, the eligibility period was from March 2024 to March 2025.
It’s also interesting to see if someone like Kendrick Lamar, who received the most nominations at this year’s AMAs, will sweep the top categories in the same way he swept the Grammy awards. The 2025 Grammys happened before Lamar performed as the headliner at the Super Bowl Halftime show. Perhaps this would increase his popularity, but it has been some time since that performance and his nominated songs were released.
One category that would be interesting to watch is the favorite country female artist category. Will the public go with the American Country Music Awards, ignore Beyoncé, and give the win to Lainey Wilson. Or will they go with the Grammys and give Beyoncé the win? It depends on who is voting. If it’s a younger demographic with a varied range of genre listeners, they are more likely to choose Beyoncé. However, die-hard country fans would not.
The return of the American Music Awards after a three-year hiatus brings new excitement to both music fans and prediction market traders. With fan voting determining the winners and a varied lineup of nominees across genres, the 2025 ceremony promises surprises that could reward those who understand current music trends and voting demographics.
Sign up at Kalshi now to trade on entertainment awards like the American Music Awards.
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